၊မြစ်ဆုံရေကာတာအကြောင်း အမှားနဲ့အမှန် – – Myitsone Myths and Truths – LXIV – Myanmar Gazette Print News Media Forum Network

‘တရုပ်ဆည်အလွဲများ”ဆိုတဲ့ဦးမျိုးဝင်းသူရဲ့ဆောင်းပါးအရှည်ကြီးကိုဖေ့ဘုက်မှတ်ချက်တွေအနေနဲ့တင်လာပါတယ်၊
၊၎င်းဆောင်းပါးကိုဆွေးနွေးမယ်၊

၊ပြီးတော့၊ရေအားလျှပ်စစ်ကဖူလုံပြီးလူတွေကကြိုးစားလို့ဝူးဟန်ဒေသကတိုးတက်ဖွံ့ဖြိုးလာတာတွေကိုလိုက်ကြည့်မယ်၊
၊ရေကာတာနဲ့ပတ်သက်ပြီးပြောမယ်ဆိုရင်၊ဆောင်းပါးရှင်ဦးဝင်းမျိုးသူကညွန်ချုပ်ဟောင်းဦးထွန်းလွင်နဲ့ရွှေကလောင်ရှင်ဦးသန်းထွဋ်အောင်တို့
၊ထက်သဘောထားအမြင်ကျယ်ပါတယ်၊သူတို့နှစ်ဦးကရေကာတာကိုမလုပ်စေချင်ပါ၊လုံးဝကန့်ကွက်တယ်၊

ဦးဝင်းမျိုးသူကပြောတာကရေကာတာဆောက်လုပ်တာကိုမဆန့်ကျင်ပါ၊အားနဲချက်တွေကိုပြုပြင်ထိန်းသိမ်းနိုင်ဘို့ကိုသူက
။တောင်းဆိုနေတာပါ၊

၊သို့ပင်ငြားလည်း၊အများပြည်သူအကျိုးနဲ့ပတ်သက်နေလို့ဦးမျိုးဝင်းသူရဲ့၊ဆောင်းပါးထဲက
၊အမှားတွေကိုဖော်ထုတ်ရပါမယ်၊

၁၊တင်ထားတဲ့ပုံကသူဆွေးနွေးနေတဲ့ဇီပင်ပူးရေကာတာပုံမဟုတ်ပါ၊
၊မြစ်ကျဉ်း၃တန်ရေကာတာကြီးဆိုတာလူတော်တော်များများကတောင်သိနေပါတယ်၊
ဇီပင်ပူးရေကာတာကိုအောက်တွင်တင်လိုက်ပါတယ်၊

၂၊ဇိပင်ပူးရေကာတာလုပ်လို့ရေလဲဖြည့်ရော်ဝင်န်ချောင်ငလျင်လှုပ်ပါရောဆိုပြီးလူပေါင်းရှစ်သောင်း၊
၊သေကြေစေခဲ့တယ်လို့ပြောပါတယ်၊

၊အဲဒီလိုပြောတာကထင်ကြေးပါ၊သိပ္ပံနည်းကျကျခိုင်လုံတဲ့သက်သေမထူထောင်နိုင်ကြပါ၊မခိုင်လုံပါ၊
၊ဒီလိုထင်ကြသူများရှိသလို၊မဟုတ်ရပါဘူးလို့ဆန့်ကျင်ပြောစောဒကတက်သူတွေလဲအများကြီးပါ၊

၃၊ဇီပင်ပူးကငလျင်ကြောနဲ့တမိုင်ကွာ

အဲဒီလိုရေးတာကမမှန်ပါ၊တရုပ်ပါရဂူတွေရေးတာကဇီပင်ပူးကပြတ်ရွေ့သုံးခုပေါ်မှာလို့ပါပါတယ်၊
၊အံ့ဩမိမှာပါ၊ငလျင်ကြောပေါ်မှာဘာပြုလို့ဆောက်တာလဲ၊ကယ်လီဖိုးနီးယား၊အီရန်၊ဂျပန်တို့ကလဲ၊
၊ဒီလိုဘဲငလျင်ကြောပေါ်ဖြစ်စေ၊အနီးအနားမှာဖြစ်စေဆောက်ကြတယ်၊အင်္ဂျင်နီယာပုံစံ ၊နဲ့နိုင်နိုင်နင်းနင်း
ထိန်းသွားတာပါ၊

၊ဒီအချက်ကိုဖော်ပြသင့်ပါတယ်၊

၊မြစ်ဆုံမတူကွဲပြားတာကိုမဖော်ပြထားပါ၊
(လူတွေကိုချောက်လှန့်သလိုဖြစ်သွားတယ်)
၊မြစ်ဆုံကတမိုင်မကမိုင်၈၄လောက်စစ်ကိုင်းပြတ်ရွေ့နဲ့ကွာဝေးပါတယ်၊
၊ရန်ကုန်သထုံမျဉ်းဖြောင့်မိုင်၇၂ထက်ပိုဝေးပါတယ်၊

၊အကွာအဝေး မ ကပါ၊တောင်တန်းတွေခြားပြီးကာစီးထားလို့မြစ်ဆုံကစစ်ကိုင်းပြတ်ရွေ့နဲ့မထိတွေ့နိုင်ပါ၊

ဒါကြောင့်၊ရေကာတာဆည်ရေကြောင့်ငလျင်ဖြစ်လာတယ်လို့အချို့ကဇီပင်းပူးကိုစွပ်စွဲတာမျိုးဆွဲဆောင်ပြီးပြောလိုတာမျိုး၊
ဆိုရင်လုံးဝမမှန်ကန်ပါ၊

၊မြစ်ဆုံ၊ဆောင်းပါး#၂၊၃၊၄ကိုညွှန်း၊၊

၊၄၊မြစ်ဆုံကပိုမြင့်တယ်
၊ဒီလိုရေးတာကမှားနေပါတယ်၊ဇီပင်ပူးက၅၁၂ပေ၊မြစ်ဆုံက၄၅၈ပေဖြစ်ပါတယ်
၊ဦးထွန်းလွင်လို၊ရွှေကလောင်ရှင်ဦးသန်းထွဋ်အောင်လိုအမှားတွေဖြစ်နေတယ်၊

၊ဇီပင်ပူးလိုရေထုဖိအားကပြတ်ရွေ့ပေါ်ကျပြီးငလျင်ဖြစ်မယ်ကိုသွားပြီးဆက်စပ်တွဲချိတ်ရုံ
၊မကပါ၊မြစ်ဆုံကဒိထက်မြင့်လို့ဒိထက်ပြင်းထန်မယ်လို့ချောက်လှန့်နေတာပါ၊
၊အထက်ပါဆိုထားတဲ့အထိုင်းမြစ်ဆုံကစစ်ကိုင်းပြတ်ရွေ့ပေါ်မှာမဟုတ်၈၄မိုင်ဝေးပါတယ် တာင်တွေကာဆီးလို့မြစ်ဆုံရေတစက်ကမှစစ်ကိုင်းပြတ်ရွေ့ကိုလဲမထိတွေ့ပါ၊

၊ဆည်ရေကြောင့်ငလျင်ဖြစ်မဲ့အဆိုကိုရင်းချင်ပေမဲ့မရပါ၊

INDIAN EXPERTSအိန္ဒိယပါရဂူများ
၂၀၀၈ကတရုပ်ငလျင်ကို၊ဘယ်ရေကာတာကမှမဖန်တီးပါ

Dam had no hand in 2008 Chinese quake – Nature India

doi:10.1038/nindia.2010.123 Published online 13 September 2010

Dam had no hand in 2008 Chinese quake

K. S. Jayaraman

Fresh analysis by Indian geologists has demolished the theory that the deadly Wenchuan earthquake in China on May 12, 2008 was triggered by a man-made reservoir as claimed by western scientists.

Nearly 80,000 people died in the magnitude 7.9 quake on the Longmen Shan fault near the eastern margin of the Tibetan plateau. Scientists speculated that the earthquake was triggered by the 156 metre tall Zipingpu dam on Min river about 21 km east of the epicentre which began impounding water from March 2004, .

Scientists Vineet & Kalpana Gahalaut.
The link seemed ‘obvious’ given the precedent that in 1967 impoundment behind the Koyna Dam in western India triggered a 6.3 magnitude quake — the largest known reservoir-induced quake. But now Kalpna and Vineet Gahalaut at Hyderabad-based National Geophysical Research Institute (NGRI), a lab under the Council of Scientific and Industrail Research (CSIR), have shown that the Zipingpu reservoir had no role in the occurrence of the Wenchuan earthquake. The husband and wife team reached this conclusion after ‘a rigorous and robust’ analysis of the effect of the reservoir loading on the seismicity and the earthquake rupture.

“Based on our analysis, we are of the opinion that the reservoir impoundment did not influence the occurrence of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake,” Kalpna and Vineet Gahalaut told Nature India. Incidentally in a similar exercise in 2004 they had established a clear link between the Koyna Dam and the Koyna earthquake.

When a reservoir is built on or near a fault the stability of the fault plane may be affected not only by the sheer weight of water but also by the changes in pore pressure in the rocks below due to fluid diffusion.

According to the authors, the stresses and pore pressure because of the reservoir impoundment exert both stabilizing and destabilizing effects on the faults beneath it, depending upon factors such as reservoir dimension, annual changes in the reservoir level and orientation and location of faults with respect to the reservoir. The Koyna region in western India is a classic example where reservoir impoundment promoted failure of the faults, while the Tarbela reservoir in Pakistan is a very good example where impoundment of the reservoir inhibited their failure,” the scientists reported.

In the case of Wenchuan earthquake the NGRI scientists calculated change in stresses and pore pressure diffusion due to the actual variation of water level in the reservoir by adopting the standard Coulomb–Mohr frictional failure model of earthquake occurrence using the concept of the ‘Coulomb stress’ — a quantity which can be calculated if one knows the changes in shear stress, normal stress and pore pressure and the coefficient of friction on the fault. “If Coulomb stress is positive, the fault is destabilized or encouraged for failure. If it’s negative the fault will remain stable,” the researchers explained.

Using the stresses and pore pressure due to the reservoir impoundment, the NGRI scientists calculated the Coulomb stress on the northwest dipping fault plane. They found that the change in Coulomb stress at the earthquake hypocentre at a focal depth of 19 kilometres was negative during the entire reservoir water cycle, implying that the stresses due to the Zipingpu reservoir water load did not encourage failure on the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake fault plane.

“Even if we considered the contribution of pore pressure, the effective frictional resistance could not overcome the negative influence of shear stress on the fault plane at its hypocentre,” the scientists reported.

“Thus, we suggest that the reservoir impoundment probably did not play any role in the occurrence of this earthquake even if we consider the contribution from pore pressure.” According to the researchers, while the reservoir operation did not cause any increase in the Coulomb stress at the earthquake hypocentre and the region around it, it actually decreased the stress by ‘a nominal amount’ suggesting that the impoundment of Zipingpu reservoir had a ‘stabilizing effect’ on the 2008 Wenchaun earthquake hypocentre region.

၊ရေစတင်သွင်းစဉ်(၂၀၀၄) (၂၀၀၈ငလျင်မတိုင်မီ)ကမြေတိမ်နားကပျော့ပြောင်းပြီးမသိသာတဲ့မြေကြီးလှုပ်ရှားမှုတွေlow magnitude sensitivityက
အပေါင်းလက္ခဏာတွေပါဘဲ၊ရေတွေကိုတင်သွင်းရာမှာငလျင်မဖြစ်ရအောင်
(အကောင်းဘက်ကိုထောက်ပြနေပါကြောင်းကိုတွေ့ရပါတယ်)

They said their analysis, however, indicated that the slightly enhanced low-magnitude seismicity at shallow depths after the reservoir impoundment — but prior to the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake — was positively influenced by the reservoir impoundment.

တရုပ်နိုင်ငံကပါရဂူများDEBATE

‘God’s damnation’ or China’s dam: scientific debate on dam-quake link — china.org.cn

‘God’s damnation’ or China’s dam: scientific debate on dam-quake link

Some Chinese and American scientists argued that the 156-meter-high Zipingpu Dam was evidence of another case of reservoir-induced seismic activity (RIS), while other scientists challenged the claim.

Lei Xinglin, a geophysicist at the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology in Tsukuba, Japan, said preliminary research showed the filling and releasing of water in the Zipingpu reservoir from the end of 2007 to May 2008 “affected” the earthquake activities in that area.

“We found the number of quakes increased during the reservoir’s filling period, … and the epicenters of quakes clustered in the southwest and southeast areas around the reservoir during the water releasing period,” Lei and his co-workers wrote in a paper in the Chinese geosciences journal “Seismology and Geology” last December.

However, a member of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) who refused to be named said the Wenchuan tremor did not demonstrate the features of a reservoir-triggered quake.

“A RIS has a unique vertical fault movement, but what happened during the the Wenchuan earthquake was quite the opposite,” the CAS member said.

“There are four known RIS cases above 6.0-Magnitude around the world, including one in Xinfengjiang of China and another three in Zambia, Greece and India. All four were far more powerful than quakes that had been previously recorded in the regions,” Fan said to Xinhua.

Nonetheless, Ji said the reservoir could not result in a 8.0-magnitude earthquake, unless it was filled with dynamite instead of water.

He added that a 8.0-magnitude quake is close to 1,000 times more powerful than a magnitude-6.0 one.

The American journal Science published a news story on the “human trigger” for the Wenchuan Earthquake. It quoted Christian Klose, a Columbia University public hazards researcher, by saying the “several hundred million tonnes of water piled behind dams” both eased “the squeeze on the fault, weakening it, and increased the stress tending to rupture the fault.”

Klose did not mention any specific dam, but he said the effect of the stress of dam water was “25 times that of a year’s worth of natural stress loading from tectonic motions.”

“When the fault did finally rupture, it moved just the way the reservoir loading had encouraged it to,” he said.

He concluded in a non-refereed abstract at the Fall Conference of the American Geophysical Union last month “the root cause of triggering the Wenchuan earthquake may have stemmed from local and rapid mass changes on the surface.”

An email posted on Ji’s blog (http://www.sciencenet.cn/u/Majorite/) from Zhou Hua-wei, a geophysics professor at the Texas Tech University, also said Klose’s abstract was “not very convincing.”

Klose said in the abstract that Logmenshan region, where the earthquake rupture was, had no major seismic activity for more than one million years.

“But the clear line of the Longmenshan Fault from a satellite photo in such a region of a high-precipitation climate already reveals its seismically active nature,” Zhou wrote.

“The average recurrence interval for M-8 earthquakes is in a range of 3,000-6,000 years in the Longmenshan region based on geological data”, Ji Shaocheng said.

“The conference abstract was not peer reviewed … and is flawed in some facts,” he said.

“I think that Dr. Klose ought to present more detailed evidence in a journal paper, such as the Journal of Geophysical Research, that will offer more room for a vigorous analysis,” Zhou said.

Klose turned down an interview request from Xinhua, but said he would be open for statement after his paper is peer reviewed and accepted for publication.

Ji Shaocheng, a professor of Geophysics and Geology at the Ecole Polytechnique de Montreal, Quebec, Canada, also insisted that the Zipingpu Dam and the Wenchuan earthquake were not related.
“The huge scale of the Wenchuan earthquake indicates unambiguously that it was a true tectonic event caused by eastward extrusion of the Tibetan plateau against the Sichuan Basin”, Prof. Ji told Xinhua.
Although the water piled behind the dam weighed more than 320 million tonnes, Ji said. “But since the water body covers a vast area, the stress it exerted on the riverbed is similar to that of a 50 or 60-storey building.
Such stress was far from enough to cause the earthquake’s violent rupture with a length of 280 km and a depth of 20-25 km within the crust, he said.
“It’s like scratching your foot while wearing a dozen boots,” he said.
Like most reservoirs, Zipingpu was built near a fall of the Minjiang River, for power generation. It also happened to be an earthquake-active area.
It began to be filled in December 2004, and can hold 1.1 billion cubic meters of water. (not 2003 2004)
The reservoir’s dam height, storage capacity, and location on a fault satisfied at least three main conditions for a RIS, said Fan Xiao, chief engineer for regional geological surveys at the Sichuan Bureau of Geological Exploration and Exploitation of Mineral Resources.
“Statistics showed a reservoir with a dam height of over 100 meters and a total storage capacity of more than 500 million cubic meters has a 34 percent chance for causing RIS,” Fan said. He did not say where the statistics came from.
As a long-time anti-dam advocator, Fan had advised against the building of Zipingpu for many years.
“Lei’s paper further convinced me the Zipingpu Dam and the Wenchuan earthquake were closely connected,” Fan told Xinhua in a telephone interview.
Fan Xiao even went as far as suggesting that a dam the size similar to Zipingpu would not only induce an earthquake, but also escalate the power of a potential earthquake.

……Although Fan Xiao insisted that evidence linking the Zipingpu Dam and the Wenchuan earthquake has strengthened over the past months, he acknowledged that a firm conclusion was premature.

“The clustered moderate earthquakes near the Zipingpu Dam before the Wenchuan earthquake Lei mentioned in his paper might also just be the pre-shocks of the May 12 earthquake,” he admitted.

၊စိချွမ်ပြည်နယ်မှာဆည်၆၆၇၈လုံးရှိတယ်၊ဇီပင်ပူးထက်ကကြီးတာတွေလဲရှိတယ်၊ဥပမာ Ertanနဲ့Baozhusi ရေကာတာပါ၊
သူတို့ကငလျင်အဆင့်၆ထက်ကြီးတာတွေမဖြစ်ခဲ့ပါ၊

Ji said, “There are 6,678 reservoirs in the Sichuan province, and the Zipingpu is not the largest one.”

For instance, the 240-meter-high Ertan Dam built in 1999 on the Yalongjiang River has a total storage capacity of 5.8 billion cubic meters; the 132-meter-high Baozhusi Dam has a total storage capacity of 2.6 billion cubic meters.

“All those dams have never induced a destructive earthquake measuring above six degrees on the Richter scale, not to mention an 8.0-magnitude one like the Wenchuan quake,” Ji said. Enditem

(Xinhua News Agency February 20, 2009)

ICOLD

ICOLD၊ကမ႓ာ့ရေကာတာအကြီးစားအသင်းကြီးက ၊ငလျင်နေရာဇီပင်းပူးရေကာတာကိုလာရောက်စီစစ်လေ့လာပြီးစာတမ်း၁၃၇၊
၊ကိုထုတ်တယ်၊ဇီပင်ပူးကဆည်ရေကြောင့်ဝင်န်ချောင်ငလျင်ဖြစ်လာတာမဟုတ်ဆိုတာကျေညာထုတ်ထား
ရက်နဲ့ဒီလိုအလှန့်တကြားဖြစ်အောင်မရေးသင့်ပါ၊

ဦးဝင်းမျိုးသူနဲ့ကျနော်တို့ကအထက်ပါလူကြီးတို့လိုSeismologists ၊ငလျင်ဘာသာပါရဂူတွေမဟုတ်လို့
၊၎င်းတို့မှဆောင်းပါးသတင်းကိုအားကိုးတကြီးနဲ့ဆည်းပူးရတယ်၊ယင်းသို့ဆည်းပူးရာမှာ
ကျကျန်ရစ်တာတို့ကွက်ပြီးမရေးမိချန်မထားဖို့ဘက်စုံဖို့လိုပါတယ်၊

If a large dam has been designed according to the current state-of-practice, which requires that the dam can safely withstand the ground motions caused by the MCE, it should also be able to withstand the effects of the largest reservoir-triggered earthquake, as the maximum reservoir-triggered earthquake cannot be stronger than the MCE. Thus, reservoir-triggered seismicity (RTS) is not a safety problem for a well designed dam or the people who could be at risk in the case of a dam failure.

၊ဒိအပြင်ရေကာတာအသင်းကြီးကထပ်ဆိုပြန်တယ်၊ရေကာတာဆည်ကရေတွေကြောင့်ငလျင်ဖြစ်လာနိုင်မနိုင်ဆိုတာကိုအာရုံစိုက်အချိန်ကုန်ခံ၊
၊ဖို့မလိုပါ၊အသင်းကြီးကပြဌာန်းလိုက်တဲ့အဆင့်မြင့်ဆောက်လုပ်ရေးစည်းကမ်းချက်၁၂ဝပါ specificationsကိုလိုက်နာရင်ကာမိလုံလောက်တယ်
၊မြစ်ဆုံက၎င်းစည်းကမ်းချက်အတိုင်းရစ်တာ၉အဆင့်မြင့်မြင့်နဲ့ရေးဆွဲထားကြောင်းစီပီအိုင်အကြီးအကဲကကျေညာထားတယ်၊စီပီအိုင်အကြီးအကဲ
၊ကပြောတဲ့နေရာမှာဇီပင်းပူးရေကာတာကရစ်တာရအဆင့်လုပ်ခဲ့ပေမဲ့မြစ်ဆုံအတွက်ရစ်တာ၉အဆင့်လုပ်ဖို့ပုံစံရေးဆွဲထားကြောင်းကျေညာရှင်း

၊လင်းထားတယ်၊၊ရစ်တာ၉ကရစ်တာရထက်အဆတစ်ရာပါ၊

၊စီပီအိုင်အကြီးအကဲပြော
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2011-10/03/content_13835493.htm

The Myanmar government also organized famous consulting organizations and experts from Switzerland and Japan to prove that over and over.

…..The seismic design of the dam in Myitsone Hydropower Station follows the standard of fortification intensity 9, which is higher than fortification intensity 7 of Zipingbu Hydropower Station that has withstood the Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan.

To further fortify the overall seismic performance of the dam, we applied reinforced concrete grating to the top of downstream dam slope and implemented other seismic fortifying measures.

In case of emergency, the surface and middle discharge orifices on the spillway can be used to rapidly lower the reservoir water level and ensure dam and downstream safety.

၊ရေကာတာတဝှိုက်(၊မြစ်လက်တက်များပါနိုင်)မှာကျိုတင်အကဲခတ်တိုင်းတာသတင်းပေးစခန်း၂၅နေရာအပြင်၊
၊ရေကာတာအတွင်းအပြင်မှာအကဲခတ်အခြေပြတိုင်းတာတဲ့စက်ကိရိယာခုနှစ်ရာတပ်ဆင်မြှုပ်နှံထားမှာ၊

We will build 25 digital remote control seismic monitoring stations in the reservoir area and arrange more than 700 safety monitoring instruments all over the dam in accordance with the safety monitoring standard applied to the world’s highest concrete face rockfill dam so as to keep a close eye on the dam’s working conditions during operation.