တရုပ်ကြီးအပေါ်ကမ်ဘာကျော် အမေရိကန်စီးပွါးရေးပါရဂူ Stephen Roach ရဲ့အမြင်

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“အလုပ်လက်မဲ့နှုန်း၊ (၉.၆) ရာခိုင်နှုန်းကြီးဖြင်၊့ နှစ်ချီပြီး ကြာမြင့် ခဲ့ရခြင်း အကြောင်းရင်းကို အမေရိကန်နိုင်ငံရေးသမား တွေက မိမိတို့ရဲ့ပြည်သူများ အား အဖြေမပေးနိုင်လို့ ငွေလဲလှယ်နှုန်းကို ချယ်လှယ်တယ်ဆိုပြီး၊ တရုပ်ကြီးကိုဘဲ အလွယ်တကူ လွဲချ ပုံချ တော့တယ်၊ဝမ်းနဲစရာ ပါဘဲ၊”

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Stephen Roach: The Future of China – YouTube

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=np83fgGOJKs&feature=related

Uploaded by YaleUniversity on Nov 1, 2010

Mr. Roach has spent twenty-eight years in senior positions at Morgan Stanley — the bulk of that time as Chief Economist and more recently as Chairman of the firm’s Asian businesses. In addition to his position at Yale, he remains the Non-Executive Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia. Mr. Roach has long been one of Wall Street’s most influential economists. 

His most recent book, “The Next Asia: Opportunities and Challenges for a New Globalization” analyzes Asia’s economic imbalances and the dangers of the region’s dependence on Western consumers. Mr. Roach talks about the future of China and what it means for the global economy.

China 2025 – Stephen Roach on China’s Economy (1/3) – YouTube

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4qofps9-7Ic&feature=related

The Chinese economy is truly incredible, it’s an economy that makes me reminisces of Korea in the 80s and Japan in the 60s. It’s a dynamic economy that isn’t laden with debts that’s fueled by real growth. The ultimate success of their economy could be attribute to their government, the government has provided and cut loans at the right time, invested heavily in all areas and promoted labour. However, their economy has to increase consumption to extend their growth after their labour cost rise.

China 2025 – Stephen Roach on China’s Economy (2/3) – YouTube

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=06-7Se3kgmE&feature=related

China 2025 – Stephen Roach on China’s Economy (3/3) – YouTube

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lmEnwKwL_B8&feature=related

The Politic: The Next China: An Interview with Stephen Roach

http://www.thepolitic.org/articles/56/an-interview-with-stephen-roach

America has a jobs problem. We have a 9.6% unemployment rate that would be even higher than that if you threw in people who have given up looking for work. Even for those working, wages have been stagnant in inflation adjusted terms for over a decade. American middle class workers are understandably ticked off and they’re holding their politicians accountable. Politicians either do not have answers, or the answers they do have not resonated with hard-pressed American workers. So instead, politicians have sadly chosen to blame someone else – China. 

The argument that politicians make to American middle-class workers is that your problem is trade – that we have a big trade deficit, and that the biggest piece of that deficit is with China. China “manipulates its currency,” goes the argument, and if we get them to strengthen their currency, things will be better.

That’s the Washington argument, and its reinforced by a lot of economists with pretty fancy pedigrees, including a Nobel Prize in the case of Paul Krugman, who underscores the fact that currency manipulation is strangling American workers.

As I recently wrote in The New York Times, I happen to think that that’s completely wrong. If you look at the U.S., we don’t have a bilateral trade problem with China – we have a multilateral trade deficit with ninety countries. The reason we have that is because we don’t save. So, as we are unwilling to boost savings given our large budget deficit and low household savings rate, we’re going to have a multilateral trade deficit with a large number of our trading partners for years to come. If we close down trade with China, the Chinese piece will just go somewhere else. This is an example of bad economics driving bad politics.

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၂၀၀၄ မတ်လ ၂၂ရက်နေ့

တရုပ်ကြီးကိုကျေးဇူး ဘာကြောင့်တင်သင့်ကြောင်း

Why we ought to be thanking the Chinese – March 22, 2004

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2004/03/22/365075/index.htm

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2004/03/22/365075/index.htm

…..Nor should China be accused of having an undervalued currency that gives it an unfair advantage in the battle for market share. Xenophobic American Congressmen believe that the country’s bilateral trade surplus with the U.S. is the smoking gun of a manipulated currency. Never mind that the RMB peg to the dollar hasn’t changed since 1994; the more important point is that China runs large deficits with most of its other trading partners. As a consequence, its overall trade position is only slightly in surplus–some plus–three-tenths of a percent of Chinese gross domestic product in 2003. If anything, this suggests that the Chinese currency may be fairly valued–at odds with those clamoring for a quick revaluation.

Most of all, the world owes a debt of gratitude to China for its commitment to dismantling its state-owned economy. For China, this is the only avenue to sustained prosperity. For other nations, it is an opportunity to tap an enormous market.

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အန်တရယ်လို့မြင်နေဘို့ဝေးဆွ၊အခြားနိုင်ငံများအတွက် အတုခိုးဘို့ကောင်းတဲ့ အရေးကြီး သော နမူနာသာဓက တရပ်ဘဲ၊

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Nor do we in the West have to worry that China will play unfairly on the road to reform. China’s willing accession to the World Trade Organization guarantees that it will be held accountable to a system based on Western rules.

By committing to such an extraordinary transformation, China has thrown down the gantlet to the rest of the world. Yes, China’s success is also a challenge: It puts the rigid and outdated economies in Europe and Japan on notice that they must also change, or risk being left behind in an increasingly fast-moving time. Far from being a threat, China is an important example for others to emulate.

No one said globalization would be easy. But in the end, it sure beats the alternatives. Thank you, China, for showing the way.

STEPHEN S. ROACH is chief economist at Morgan Stanley.

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အာရှ နိုင်ငံ များရဲ့ စီးပွါးရေး အခွင့်အလမ်း နဲ့အခက်အခဲများ

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Stephen Roach on the Next Asia: Opportunities and Challenges for a New Globalization | Business Economics | Find Articles

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1094/is_4_45/ai_n56471344/

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တရုပ်ကြီး နဲ့အပြင် နောက်ထပ် ၈၉နိုင်ငံနဲ့လဲ အကြွေး တင်လို့၊ တရုပ်ကြီးနဲ့နှစ်နိုင်ငံကြားလဲလှယ်နှုန်းညှိရုံနဲ့ မရပါ၊ အမေရိကန် ပြည်သူတွေကအကုန်သုံး ပြီး မချိုးခြံမစုဆောင်းမိ တာ အဓိကတချက်ပါဝင်၊

(ဆိုရိုးစကား ကိုပြောင်းသင့်-…တရုပ်လိုရှာ ကုလားလိုစု “အမေရိကန်”လိုမဖြုံးနဲ့… ဟူလို)

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…Throughout the book, Roach argues strongly, persuasively and even courageously at times against the perennial threat of U.S. protectionism. He consistently hews to the line that a fundamental investment-saving imbalance is what really drives the massive U.S. trade deficit, which remains a multilateral and not a bilateral problem. At one stage, he gave sovereign wealth funds a fair-minded defense when it was not popular to do so. And he points out that China’s choosing of an open development strategy (in contrast with Japan) is an opportunity the United States will not want to squander….