မြစ်ဆုံရေကာတာအကြောင်း အမှားနဲ့အမှန် – – Myitsone Myths and Truths III

ဒုတိယမေးခွန်း

မြစ်ဆုံနားမှာမြေငလျင်ကြီး ရံဖန်ရံခါဖြစ်စေ၊
အကြီးအကျယ်ဖြစ်စေ၊၊
ဖြစ်ခဲ့သလား သို့တည်းမဟုတ် ဖြစ်နိုင်မလား

 

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Only Richter 6 and above, are considered serious (disaster area)

 

Richter 2 – micro quakes. almost undetectable may not feel it

 

 

ရစ်တာ ၂ ဆို သိတောင်မသိလိုက်နိုင် ရစ်တာမှတ် စက်ကဘဲအနည်းငယ်လှုပ်

 

Richter 4 to 6 – moderate quakes, small movements,
water in a cup moved

ရစ်တာ ၄ မှ ၆ က လဘက်ရည်ခွက်ကရေ လှိုင်းဂယက်လေး
လှုပ်သာလောက်ရှိလို့ဘေးဥပါဒ်မရှိပါ

 

Richter 6 and above – Called disaster area. Significant damage.
houses can collapse cracks appear

 

ရစ်တာ ၆ ဆို အိမ်တွေအက်ကြောင်းပေါ်
ပြိုကျနိုင်

 

(See also USGS maps and links to publications posted earlier)

Most Burma earthquakes are near the Sagaing Fault.

Its larger (M 6 to M 7.5) earthquakes are on the west, near the Indian border.
More frequent ones occur on the west because of a slower Burma plate scrapes
with a faster moving Indian Plate

Most moderate (M 4 to M 6) ones with rare > M 7 ones occur in Central and Lower
Burma .

 

ကချင်ပြည်နယ်ပိုင်းက
စစ်ကိုင်း ငလျင်ကျောဟာ တဆက်ထဲ မဟုတ်
အပိုင်းပိုင်း ဖြစ်နေလို့အင်အားစုစည်းပြီး
အုံကြွ ပေါက်ကွဲ တာမရှိ ငလျင်အားလဲသေးသိမ်ပြီးဖြစ်ခဲ၊

 

In Kachin State, the Sagaing Fault is splintered into smaller thin lines (like horse
tails) or segments (loose means with less energy conductivity – less powerful
and less damaging). Excellent conditions for Myitsone area.

 

အလှမ်းဝေး ၆၂ မိုင် မှ ၁၃၄ မိုင် ရှိ မိုးကောင်း နဲ့
ကမိုင်း ပိုင်းလေးမှာ ၁၉၃၁ တုံး ကတကြိမ်
ဘဲ ရစ်တာ ၇.၆ ဖြစ်ခဲ့ပြီး
ခုထိတခါမှမဖြစ်တော့ပါ, 

 

In either Mogaung or Kamaing segment (of Sagaing Fault), an M 7.6 earthquake took
place in Jan 1931, 75 years ago. None after that. This controversial epicenter
is at least about 62 miles and may be up to 135 miles away from Myitsone. (see
attached Mgs pic)

အမေရိကန်မြေငလျင်ဌာန မှ အနှစ် ၁၁၆ ကာလ အတွင်း
မြစ်ဆုံ တဝှိုက် မှာ ဖြစ်ပေါ်ခဲ့တဲ့ ငလျင်မြေပုံပါ၊

An USGS earthquake map spanning 116 years from Jan 1, 1900 to April 26, 2016

shows only two earthquakes  happening in over a century around Myitsone within certain parameters.
(See Myitsonearea3 pic) Rare in 116 years and just a little over M 6.

 

၁၁၆ နှစ်ကျော် အတွင်းမှာ ၂ ကြိမ်သာ၊

၁၉၆၂ တကြိမ် ၁၉၂၉ ထကြိမ်
ဖြစ်ခဲ့ပြီး ၂ကြိမ်စလုံး ရစ်တာ ၆. ၃ နဲ့
၆၂ မိုင်ကျော်ေဝးတယ် ဆိုတော့ဘေးဥပါဒ်မရှိပါ၊

 

Both > 100 km away and M 6.3, one in Feb 1962 and the other Oct 1929 near the China 

border.

The parameters are latitudes 26.293 to 26.308 and longitudes 96.127 to 96.949
(see pics Myitsonearea1 and 2)

 

Note: The bottom threshold starts upwards from around Myitkyina, with Myitsone
somewhat in the middle.

 

Mogaung is much farther (many miles) farther away from Myitsone, to the south west.

Pics Mogaung and Myitmogaung will show you this area to the southwest. Kamaing
is farther west from Myitkyina and north of Mogaung

 

 

(All are invited to try it themselves).

—————————————
BTW,

Per experts below, there is a likelihood of a > M 7 quake around Nay Pyi Taw area (Central Burma).
As mentioned, they relocated the Mogaung segment earthquake of 1931 to Kamaing segment (see below)

——————————————-

Media says:
“…Myitsone site is “less than 100 km from Sagaing fault lines…”
To a layman it’s rather hard to visualize.

Whatever that is, it must be close.

Most people have no idea about a Km or how much “less than 100 km” will work out to.

Rumors spread like wild fire. Some are even led to believe that Myitsone actually sits on the Sagaing fault
line itself, even to this day.

A “less than … ” indefinite figure can morph into something else.

How do these , 100 km statements tie in with the above USGS maps and publications?
They are not exactly the same. With the maps, you can gauge or visualize the actual distances.
*****So, It can now be safely said that Myitsone is definitely not sitting on the Sagaing fault line, nor
that much closer.*****

——————————————————-

Nobuo Hurukawa, Phyo Maung Maung

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2010GL046099/full

To enable an assessment of earthquake hazards in the region, it is necessary to determine the precise locations of past large earthquakes and to predict the locations of future earthquakes. Therefore, to identify the fault planes that ruptured during large earthquakes of the past, it is important to identify seismic gaps because such gaps indicate future earthquakes. However, the precise locations of epicenters and faults related to large earthquakes remain unknown. Although, the International Seismological Summary (ISS) reported hypocenter locations and phase data for earthquakes in the world since 1918, the location data may contain large uncertainties because of the limited number of available seismic stations and because of inaccurate readings of some seismic phases. Therefore, in the present study, we relocated the six M ≥ 7.0 earthquakes with the aim of improving the accuracy of their estimated locations.

 

1. Per experts, it’s the rupture locations that count, not just proximity to a fault line.

Meaning it’s not happening all along the fault line.

2. The frequency of occurrence also counts.

Meaning: It’s not happening all the time.

3. The size also count.

Here in Northern Kachin State, most magnitudes are below M4, M4 to M6 (moderate quakes) won’t harm Myitsone.

An M7 happened in either Mogaung segment (about 62 or more miles away) * or Kamaing segment (about 134 miles away).* *

It happened only once in 1931. It’s quite a distance away to the south west of Myitkyina and Myitsne.

* Rough equivalent distance – Yangon to Payagyi Bus Gate, Yangon Mdy Road or more
**Rough equivalent distance – Yangon to Daik U or more

(Try going from Yangon to these places and you will realize that it’s not that close from Myitzone to these
segments)

From these distances, one can see that an earthquake happening in Mogaung or Kamaing segm)ent won’t be that severely impacting on Myitsone.

Myitsone is even farther away from both segments than Myitkyina. This means that Myitsone is even less exposed than Myitkyina).

Saying that what happened to Shwemadaw at Bago or around Daik U will impact severely on Yangon buildings may not ring true. Why?
Because it’s > 50 to 60 miles away.

Same will apply. A quake at Mogaung segment 62 miles away or Kamaing segment 134 miles away will not have too much of an impact on Myitsone.

“..[14] The 27 January 1931 earthquake (M 7.7) was relocated near the northern edge of the 1946 doublet. The fault length is estimated to have been ∼180 km, based on the M–L relation. Therefore, the rupture is estimated to have been located north of the epicenter (Figures 2 and 3a). The aftershock on 30 January (earthquake No. 3 in Figure 2) was relocated at ∼100 km north of the epicenter of the mainshock, which is consistent with our interpretation regarding the location of the fault plane of the mainshock…”
“,,This analysis revealed two seismic gaps: one between 19.2°N and 21.5°N in central Myanmar, and another south of 16.6°N in the Andaman Sea. Considering the length of the first seismic gap (∼260 km), a future earthquake of up to M ∼7.9 is expected to occur in central Myanmar. Because Nay Pyi Taw, the recently established capital of Myanmar, is located on the expected fault, its large population is exposed to a significant earthquake hazard…”

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မြစ်ဆုံထက်နေပြည်တော် က စိုးရိမ်ရတယ်လို့
ကျွမ်းကျင်သူတွေကပြော

 

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(Rather than Myitsone, experts say Nay Pyi Taw’s exposure looks bad).